Sunday, March 7, 2010

My Predictions for the 2010 Academy Awards

I was going to call Miss Cleo to get her thoughts on this year's nominees. However, since I have a low tolerance for fake Jamaican accents, I decided I was going to fly solo. Below are my Oscar predictions (highlighted in bold) for 7 of the major categories.

Best actor in a leading role:
* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Why: This will be a way for the Academy to honor Jeff''s body of work. With a career that includes strong performances in such films as The Last Picture Show, Fat City, and Arlington Road, I'm OK with that. Plus, from what I hear, Jeff gave an amazing performance.

Best actor in a supporting role:
* Matt Damon in “Invictus”
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Why: Christoph has won practically every honor for this performance (I think he even won a Soul Train Music Award), so this is a safe bet.

Best actress in a leading role:
* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Why: I call this the "Julia Roberts/Erin Brockovich rule": An actress with box-office appeal gives a critically acclaimed performance by portraying a contemporary, real-life person. Plus, the Academy may feel that Sandra isn't likely to get nominated again so this is their chance to show their appreciation.

Best actress in a supporting role:
* Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
* Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
* Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
* Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Why: She has dominated the awards season with her portrayal of the title character's abusive mother. The only Best Supporting Actress award for which Mo’Nique's been nominated that she didn't win was the Toronto Film Critic's Association's (Anna Kendrick took home the prize for “Up in the Air"). I don't see Anna upsetting Mo’Nique a 2nd time.

Best animated feature film:

*“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
*“The Princess and the Frog”
*“The Secret of Kells”

Why: I have a hunch that the stop motion/computer animated trio of Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Up, may cancel each other out. This leaves the hand-drawn duo of The Princess and the Frog and The Secret of Kells. The Academy may want to honor the dying art of hand-drawn motion picture animation and will therefore give the nod to the better known The Princess and the Frog.

Best Director:
*James Cameron, “Avatar”
*Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
*Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
*Lee Daniels, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
*Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

Why: I think the stars are all lined up for history to be made by awarding the Best Director Oscar to a woman for the first time. Plus, the Academy may feel that with the top 2 highest grossing films in box-office history (before adjustments for inflation) and a Best Director Oscar already on his mantel, James Cameron has enough.

Best motion picture:
*“The Blind Side”
*“District 9″
*“An Education”
*“The Hurt Locker”
*“Inglourious Basterds”
*“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
*“A Serious Man”
*“Up in the Air”

Why: Although the pool of nominees has increased to 10, I think this is a two-horse race between "The Two Billion Dollar Film" and "The Little War Movie That Could". The Nicolas Chartier controversy may cause The Hurt Locker to lose some votes, but I'm still going with it because of the "James Cameron has enough" factor.

What are your Oscar predictions this year?


Candy Minx said...

Very good predictions and I think you are spot on. I might say that Avatar is very close to getting best picture. Usually best director will take best pic, but it might really be tight. The good news is Bigelow's former husband and still good friend Cameron says "its a win win because he will be very happy if she is finally recognized after 25 years of being an excellent film maker". (he said that on Oprah the other day)

pjazzypar said...

I am with you on the films that I saw this year. Bullock and Monique were awesome in their roles. Both have shown great talent above and beyond what they are usually offered material wise. They are actually better than the roles they are currently offered. I only hope this recognition changes all of this. Although I remember people like Marisa Tomei and Eileen Heckart, where a win did nothing to enhance their careers.

X. Dell said...

I had to look at the posting time. Quite impressive predictions. Next year, at Oscar time, wanna take a trip to Vegas with me?

Malcolm said...

Candy: It would be great to learn what the final tabulations were for Best Picture and Best Director because I think it was close too. Although it would have made for a more interesting story if Cameron and Bigelow hated each other, I am kinda glad that they get along. If they did hate each other's insides, the media would have played it up to no end.

Pjazzy: I was thinking. Just two years ago if someone had said that Mo'Nique was capable of turning in a performance like she did in "Precious", a lot of people would have said "The lady from 'The Parkers'?! Yeah, right!" I hope that the wins by both her and Sandra Bullock will cause more casting directors to go outside the norm.

X. Dell: Sure, I'll take a trip to Vegas next year. Are we driving, flying or taking the train?

Malcolm said...

Pjazzy: Oh yeah, good call on what you said about past Best Supp. Actress Oscar winners. That category is littered with winners who saw no real career boost after taking home the award.

Penny said...

Well I'll say you did pretty well Malcolm :)

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